Report Suggests China May Take the Lead in Space Technology in 5-10 Years

China’s space programs, investments, and cooperative endeavours with third parties have accelerated so much in the past 10 years that a new report from the Commercial Space Federation indicates it’s poised to become the leading country in aerospace technology. Called “Redshift,” the report outlines the key areas in which China has made significant progress and claims that said progress is only accelerating. This could mean China becomes the most advanced space-bound nation in less than a decade, the report suggests.

The report outlines how Chinese commercial investments in space have grown to several billion dollars a year in just the past few years. Half a dozen spaceports are now in operation, and plans exist to increase their number and scale to rival US companies like SpaceX within just a few years. China has over 12 launch companies, many building the kind of lift vehicles that could soon rival SpaceX’s Falcon 9 workhorse. It also highlights how China continues to hit its milestones for lunar and Mars missions in the coming decade, while NASA’s Artemis plans keep slipping.

“The key takeaway here is that there is an acceleration,” said Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. “The United States is still ahead today in a lot of areas in space. But the Chinese are advancing very quickly and poised to overtake us in the next five to 10 years if we don’t do something.”

Chinese Long March rockets come in a range of shapes and sizes.
Credit: Amaury67/Creative Commonse License

As Ars Technica highlights, if it weren’t for the efforts of private US-based space companies like SpaceX, America would already be behind. Low-earth orbit communications have also developed far faster in the private sector than in the national one. Though NASA still has a large influence over the direction of US space policy and development, it doesn’t have its own launch vehicle. Many of its greatest strengths in space come from previous decades of development rather than recent efforts, too.

The report urges America to halt its plans for budget contractions at NASA and to support commercial space ventures. It wants them to build out new commercial LEO space stations, creating springboards to greater space-based stations and bases on foreign bodies in the future.

Ultimately, the report argues, the US has one last chance to remain at the pinnacle of space development by taking the lead right now. If it stalls, delays, or restricts investment, it’s bound to fall behind, ceding some of the greatest advances in space technology and resource gathering to China in the decades to come.